Who Needs Hackers?
The New York Times on the observation that complex systems can fail with spectacular results even in the absence of malicious attackers.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Eleven lessons learned from 9/11 - Travel News - MSNBC.com
Seen on MSNBC.com:
For the airline industry, 9/11 will always be a watershed moment, the horror between "before 9/11" and after "9/11."Is this just lousy editing, or am I missing a fiendishly clever syntactic joke?
Monday, September 10, 2007
The Effects of Petraeus' Testimony
Iraq 'surge' working, Petraeus tells Congress - CNN.com: "A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll taken last month found about two-thirds of Americans -- 64 percent -- oppose the Iraq war, and 72 percent say even if Petraeus reports progress, that won't change their opinion."
Um, what? Does that say that more Americans say they won't change their opinion if Petraeus reports progress than say they oppose the war in the first place? I guess we're supposed to think that means that 72% of the 64% who oppose the war will still oppose it even if Petraeus reports progress, that is, that 46% of Americans both oppose the war and will continue to do so even if Petraeus reports progress, but that's really not what it says.
What it does say implies that 28% of Americans might change their opinion if Petraeus reports progress. Now, I suppose there might be people who don't oppose the war but would start opposing it if Petraeus reports progress, but that's a strange position; common sense says that most of the Americans who might change their opinions if Petraeus reports progress are among those for whom a change of opinion would entail ceasing to oppose the war. So somewhere between zero and 28% of Americans (but almost certainly closer to the latter) oppose the war now but might change their opinion if Petraeus reports progress. In other words, it's possible that up to 44% of those Americans who oppose the war now might change their opinion if Petraeus reports progress. That's pretty different from the 34% implied by the analysis in my first paragraph.
I decline to state which of these groups I am in. But I think the more interesting question is whether those who do not support the war and would not change their opinions even if Petraeus reports progress -- however many of them there actually are -- hold that view because they think any recent progress is irrelevant or because they think Petraeus is an unreliable source of information on the matter.
By the way, as the linked article title indicates, Petraeus has reported progress. What percentage of Americans are surprised?
Um, what? Does that say that more Americans say they won't change their opinion if Petraeus reports progress than say they oppose the war in the first place? I guess we're supposed to think that means that 72% of the 64% who oppose the war will still oppose it even if Petraeus reports progress, that is, that 46% of Americans both oppose the war and will continue to do so even if Petraeus reports progress, but that's really not what it says.
What it does say implies that 28% of Americans might change their opinion if Petraeus reports progress. Now, I suppose there might be people who don't oppose the war but would start opposing it if Petraeus reports progress, but that's a strange position; common sense says that most of the Americans who might change their opinions if Petraeus reports progress are among those for whom a change of opinion would entail ceasing to oppose the war. So somewhere between zero and 28% of Americans (but almost certainly closer to the latter) oppose the war now but might change their opinion if Petraeus reports progress. In other words, it's possible that up to 44% of those Americans who oppose the war now might change their opinion if Petraeus reports progress. That's pretty different from the 34% implied by the analysis in my first paragraph.
I decline to state which of these groups I am in. But I think the more interesting question is whether those who do not support the war and would not change their opinions even if Petraeus reports progress -- however many of them there actually are -- hold that view because they think any recent progress is irrelevant or because they think Petraeus is an unreliable source of information on the matter.
By the way, as the linked article title indicates, Petraeus has reported progress. What percentage of Americans are surprised?
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